Best MLB player prop bet for today, 8/17: Diamondbacks show up

It’s a thin MLB slate to choose from tonight, but I have found a player to target with great buy-low value. Here is my best player prop bet for the evening of Thursday, August 17.

Same Game Parlay: Corbin Carroll hit & Zac Gallen 4+ strikeouts (-140)

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing; recommended 0.75u wager.

The Diamondbacks have been reeling. The gap is being closed on NL Cy Young frontrunner Zac Gallen and the struggles have been aplenty for NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner Corbin Carroll. Nonetheless, they are in great spots today and we are getting a discount for them to show up and do their jobs against an inconsistent Padres team.

First off, although Carroll has fallen off lately, he is still seeing the ball just fine against left-handed pitchers — posting a 134 wRC+ with a 33.3 hard-hit % against southpaws in August. Today he faces one of the worst lefties in the Game, Rich Hill, whom he is already 2-for-5 off of this season.

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Hill has a poor 4.76 SIERA and ranks in the 18th percentile in barrel rate allowed and 8th percentile in xwOBA this season. Against left-handed hitters he has posted a 5.35 xFIP and his go-to put-away pitches have been four-seam fastballs and sweepers. Since the all-star break, Carroll has posted a .321 xBA against left-handed four-seamers and on the season, he has posted a .221 xBA against curveballs. It’s a great idea to back Carroll against the soft-tossing veteran, but even if he cannot get the job done early it is encouraging that the Padres rank #22 in bullpen xFIP against left-handed hitters since the break.

As for Gallen, the Arizona ace is needed for depth in this contest. Nearly every member of the Diamondbacks’ bullpen was used in bulk in their previous series at Colorado and Gallen should be able to provide the outing they need in this situation. Gallen has notched at least 4 strikeouts in 22 of his 25 starts this season, 10 of his 12 on four days rest (as he is today), and 18 of his 19 in which he went at least 6.0 innings (his “outs recorded” line is set just above that). Since the break, the Padres’ offense ranks middle-of-the-pack in home strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in the first 6 innings and #18 in run value/100 against right-handed curveballs; it just so happens that Gallen’s top whiff weapon is a curveball. This strikeout bar is very low for him.

This 2-leg same-Game parlay is playable to -150.

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